Agenda

Robin Konietzny (University of Groningen)

Ca' Foscari-Groningen PhD seminar series

The seminar will held on zoom: https://unive.zoom.us/j/86564425378

ID riunione: 865 6442 5378

Abstract
We study how different aspects of occupation-level import exposure affect perceived job security. To that end, we use German worker-level panel data combined with global input-output data for 2000-2014. Our instrumental variables results show that Eastern European imports generally hold no consequences for the job security of German workers except for workers with prior unemployment experience. However, Chinese imports substituting for domestic production (i.e., competition-increasing imports) raise workers’ job insecurity. At the same time, exposure to Chinese intermediate imports (i.e., productivity-enhancing imports) boosts job security. These effects are more pronounced for workers with prior unemployment experience but do not vary by a more senior position within a firm. We find suggestive evidence that changes in expectations about promotion, working hours, and wages are mechanisms underlying these findings. As such, Chinese import shocks are a double-edged sword: while competition-increasing imports impose a job insecurity cost for German workers, productivity-enhancing ones alleviate job worries.