Agenda

Thomas Kjeldsen, University of Bath

The seminar will also be held remotely at 
https://unive.zoom.us/j/85153268624?pwd=MzBhdlA2M1B2dThJQ2Y5T0EwUE5PZz09
ID riunione: 851 5326 8624
Passcode: SanMarco2

Abstract:
Statistical models of extreme rainfall and flood events have been used for more than a century to aid design and operation of water infrastructure.  In particular, extreme value models are routinely used to establish a relationship between event-magnitude and exceedance probability, often expressed as return period.  This talk will present examples of recent progress in the application of extreme value models to address practical problems and opportunities facing hydrological engineers.  First the impact of land-use and climate change on future flood risk will be considered, focussing in particular on the use of change-permitting extreme value models.  Secondly, the talk will discuss the use mixture models by considering different event-types, and the new opportunities emerging through the use of large-scale open-access meteorological data.

Bio Sketch:
Dr Thomas Kjeldsen is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Architecture amp; Civil Engineering at the University of Bath, UK. Before joining the University he has worked as a research scientist for over a decade at the Natural Environment Research Councils NERC Centre for Ecology amp; Hydrology CEH, where he headed research into hydrological extremes. Thomas' research focuses mainly on the use of mathematical and statistical modelling of environmental and hydrological systems, with emphasis on predicting extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. He led the scientific development underpinning the current UK industry standard methods for flood frequency analysis. Current research efforts aim to understand the effect of environmental change climate change, urbanisation, landuse management on water resources systems, and he is pioneering research into risk and uncertainty analysis of extreme events.