Agenda

07 Lug 2021 15:00

Eva Levelt - Qualitative Expectations in Surveys: a Laboratory Experiment (Pre-defense)

Online seminar

"Qualitative Expectations in Surveys: a Laboratory Experiment"
Julian Ashwin, Michele Bernasconi, Cars Hommes & Eva Levelt

Abstract: Surveys are an increasingly important way for researchers and policymakers to quantify economic agents' expectations of key macroeconomic variables such as inflation, but the methodology used in these surveys varies widely. We study whether the way expectations are elicited has a significant effect on the answers given. Participants are asked to predict the next value for annual historical inflation series, without being told the region or time period from which those series are taken. We investigate expectations given when participants are asked for quantitative point expectations, qualitative ‘bucket' expectations and a combination where qualitative buckets carry a quantitative label that differs between treatments. We find that quantitative expectations lead to the highest quality predictions. Qualitative information alongside quantitative buckets is used by participants. Finally, we find that trend-following rules best replicate the expectations stated by participants.

The seminar will be held on zoom: https://unive.zoom.us/j/85881048477

ID riunione: 858 8104 8477

Lingua

L'evento si terrà in inglese

Organizzatore

Dipartimento di Economia (InSeminars; CVera)

Link

https://www.unive.it/data/persone/23613194

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