Methods and Tools for the Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Policies

The aim of the course is to teach how to use quantitative system models to assess and design climate change policies. The course will focus on two specific methodologies and techniques used in the evaluation and management of mitigation and adaptation measures and policies, integrated assessment models and econometric analysis. The course will provide students with a working knowledge of the economic aspects of climate change, as well as of the main tools used in the emerging climate economy field.

Expected educational achievements
Students are expected to learn how to use integrated assessment models and empirical models, to interpret their results and to communicate them, to apply their knowledge to new multidisplinary contexts related to their field of study. Students are expected to develop the learning skills to further apply the methods taught in the course in a self-directed or autonomous way.

Undergraduate-level notions of calculus, statistics, microeconomics, macroeconomics.

Lecture 1: Assessing impacts of extreme weather and climate related events (1)
· Introduction, typologies,
· International and European policies: SFDRR, WIM, .
· Key terms – exceedance probability, annual expected damage/loss, .
· Observed losses, normalisation, trend detection,
· Future projections
· Cat Models and insurance schemes
Lecture 2: Assessing impacts of extreme weather and climate related events (2)
· Large scale hazard modelling
· Climate services – Emergency Management, Climate Change and Land Monitoring
· Damage and loss models for floods, windstorms and droughts,
Lecture 3: Practical exercise for assessing flood damage using QGIS and R
Lecture 4: Climate risk assessment
· Introduction,
· Extreme climate indices and their use
· Extreme value analysis
· Composite climate indices
· Excurse: netcdf files and how to handle them
· Index based assessment of future risks
Lecture 5: Practical exercise for using netcdf data and calculation extreme indices in R
Lecture 6: Assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity
· Introduction into construction of composite indices,
· Conceptual frameworks for vulnerability and adaptive capacity and how they are used by IPCC
· Normalisation and weighting
· Aggregation
Lecture 7: Uncertainty analysis
· Introduction, types of uncertainties
· Model uncertainties
· Uncertainty in policy making
· Social amplification and communication of uncertainties and risks
Lecture 8: Wrap-up, emerging issues and presentation of the students’ assignments

The course will use papers from the scientific literature which will be made available from the professor. Here is a selected list of papers that will be used:

LECTURE 1 - IAMs – Introduction
van Vuuren, D.P., 2015. Integrated Assessment: Back to the Future. Utrecht University. http://www.uu.nl/sites/default/files/20150805-uu_oratie - van_vuuren.pdf.
van Vuuren, D.P., M. Kok 2012 Integrated Assessment Modelling, Ch 16, In: Encyclopedia Of Global Environmental Governance And Politics, Edited by Philipp H. Pattberg, VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands and Fariborz Zelli, Lund University, Sweden
Turnheim et al. (2015). Evaluating sustainability transitions pathways: Bridging analytical
approaches to address governance challenges, Global Environmental Change 35 (2015) 239–253
Nordhaus, W. D., 1991. To slow or not to slow: the economics of the greenhouse effect. Economic Journal 101 (407), 920_937.
Nordhaus, WD (1993). Rolling the DICE: An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases, Resource and Energy Economics, 15, 27-50.
Nordhaus, W.D.Paul Sztorc (2013). DICE 2013: Introduction and user’s Manual
Stern, N., 2008. The economics of climate change. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 98 (2), 1_37.
Symposium: The Use of Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Policy
Weyant, J. (2017). Contributions of Integrated Assessment Models. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Volume 11, Issue 1, 1 January 2017, Pages 115–137, https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rew018
Metcalf and Stock (2017). Integrated Assessment Models and the Social Cost of Carbon: A Review and Assessment of U.S. Experience. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Volume 11, Issue 1, 1 January 2017, Pages 80–99, https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rew014
WP version available at:
Pindyck, R. S. (2017). The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Volume 11, Issue 1, 1 January 2017, Pages 100–114, https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rew012
LECTURE 2 - IAMs – GAMS for environmental-economic modelling
Dellink, R (2004). GAMS for environmental-economic modeling, Wageningen University. Available from the instructor.
LECTURE 3 - IAMs – Cost-Benefit and Cost-Effective Analysis using IAMs
IPCC WG3 (2014) Chapter 3. Social, Economic, and Ethical Concepts and Methods
IPCC, (2014). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
LECTURE 4: Overview of the research frontier in IAMs
Tol, R. (2018). Economic impacts of climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. ISSN 1750-6816.
Tol, R. (2009). The Economic Effects of Climate Change Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 23, Number 2—Spring 2009—Pages 29–51
Dell, M., Jones, B. F. and Olken, B. A. (2014). What do we learn from the weather? The new climate–economy literature. J. Econ. Lit. 52, 740–798.

The complete reading list will be circulated at the beginning on the class

During the course students will be asked to participate to in-class activities (exercises and discussions) and to hand in assignments. Together in-class activities and assignments will count to 50% for the final grade. A final take-home essay will contribute to the remainder 50% of the final grade. Activities and assignments will allow students to become familiar with the tools introduced in the course and to develop and communicate their critical viewpoint on important issue in the debate in climate change policy. All students are expected to read all the assigned readings, to participate in class discussions and write critiques when required. Students will be expected to ask and answer questions during discussions and participation will contribute significantly to the final grade.

Each lecture will combine a frontal lecture with in-class activities (described in the weekly calendar of class sessions). Each activity has the objective to familiarize students with tools of analysis and concepts needed to formulate a critical view on climate change, and to analyze policies and impacts. Activities will include hand-on sessions on the software GAMS and R as well as on databases, group discussions of controversial issues in the climate-economy debate.

English

In-class activities, assignments, and the title of the final essay will be communicated at the beginning of the course.

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