Agenda

Alessandro Palma (Gran Sasso Science Institute - GSSI) - Degrees of Deception: How Test Score Manipulation Mitigates Temperature's Impact on Student Performance (joint with Rosario Maria Ballatore and Daniela Vuri)

Abstract:

Using Italian administrative data from low-stakes tests conducted without air conditioning, we examine how score manipulation biases estimates of temperature effects on test scores. Performance declines at higher temperatures, but manipulation also increases within a specific range. Exploiting the random assignment of inspectors to schools, we estimate temperature effects net of manipulation and show that performance deteriorates even at high—but not extreme—temperatures. Unadjusted estimates thus understate heat's true impact on cognitive performance, with implications for any context where manipulation is feasible. Survey evidence indicates that elevated temperatures increase anxiety and reduce self-confidence, plausibly linking heat to poorer performance.