RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

This is a compulsory course that provides the formal tools to reason about chance and its properties. The ability to adequately represent risk and uncertainty is a fundamental step in supporting decision-making, that is a defining characteristic of the managerial roles.

This course provides an introduction to probability theory, viewed as the scientific language to deal with risk and uncertainty. It emphasises an applied approach with reference to the use of probability in finance and insurance problems. Due to the cuts in teaching enacted by the Academic Senate (1 ECTS=3.75 actual hours of frontal instruction), this 6-ECTS course may cover less than what is customarily expected in similar courses taught across the European Union.

a) Knowledge and understanding:
a.1) Ability to interpret simple probabilistic statements.
a.2) Ability to think formally about chance.
a.3) Ability to recognize and use the most common probability distributions, both discrete and continuous.

b) Applying knowledge and understanding:
b.1) Ability to deal with simple combinatorial problems.
b.2) Ability to manipulate and use basic probability laws.
b.3) Ability to build formal models for solving simple insurance problems.

c) Making judgements
c.1) Ability to evaluate and compare basic contracts based on risky events.

This course emphasizes applications over theory. The formal prerequisite is successful completion of the first-year course in Mathematics.

Combinatorial probability.
General rules of probability.
Discrete random variables.
Continuous random variables.
Multivariate distributions.

A. Asimow and Mark M. Maxwell, Probability and Statistics with Applications: A Problem Solving Text, 2nd ed., 2015.

Grading is based on a final written exam. This consists of eight multiple-choice questions and two open problems.
The exam is closed-notes and closed-book, but you are allowed to use a pocket calculator. Failing to register for the exam is sufficient cause for being denied admission.

Lectures and practice sessions.

written