ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING

The course is included in the Environmental Sciences master programme, curriculum on ""Global Environmental Change",GEC. The main objective of the programme is to train highly skilled professionals, who could put into use their interdisciplinary knowledge for identifying and solving complex environmental problems. In particular, the GEC curriculum aims at providing an integrated and systemic view of economic and environmental dynamics, in order to enable master graduates to deal with global environmental challenges, in the context of sustainable development. To this regard, the challenges connected to adaptation and mitigation to Climate Changes will be one of the major focus of the curriculum. In this context, this course provides the basic knowledge for describing, using quantitative tools, and simulating the evolution of dynamic systems, such as the economic and environmental ones, by means of mechanistic models. These tools allow one to turn conceptual models into mathematical ones, whose output can be compared with field observations, thus enabling the elucidation of the mechanisms which generate the system output, on the basis of the flow of energy and matter at its boundaries and of the interactions among its main variables. This systemic approach is of paramount importance for developing predictive models, which could orient the implementation of environmental policies, including those concerning the adaptation to and the mitigation of Climate Changes. The course is being delivered also to students attending the Master Degree in Engineering for the ecological transition with the title "Applied ecology and environmental Directives". The course content will therefore be tuned to prompt the collaboration and exchange of ideas between the students of both educational programmes, focusing on the application of modelling tools in the implementation of the current environmental legislation, with specific reference on water bodies.

Attending the classes, thoroughly studying the course notes and reading materials, carrying out homework and assignments will enable students to achieve the following learning outcomes.
1) Knowledge and comprehension
Knowledge of the terminology and of the main concepts of dynamic system theory and multivariate statistics. In line with the learning objectives of the programme, this knowledge will enable students to characterize and model the spatio-temporal evolution of environmental data.
Understanding the relevance of the systemic approach in the investigation of complex systems and the forecasting of their evolution.
2) Capacity of applying knowledge and comprehension
To be able to apply statistical methodologies and modelling tools to the assessment of environmental status and to the prediction of the effect of management actions aimed at improving it, i compliance of the environmental legislation. To be able to plan management actions, aimed at mitigating the impacts of local and global anthropogenic pressures.
3) Assessment capacity
To be able of assessing the environmental benefits brought about by the implementation of alternative scenarios of management actions, such as wildlife restoking, habitat restoration, reduction of the loads of pollutants and nutrients, limitation of fishing effort .

Basic knowledge of calculus: function, most common functions of real variables (exponential, logarithm, trigonometric functions), derivative, derivation and differentiation rules, antiderivative, integrals, basic integrals and integration rules.

1) The European Union environmental legislation: main pillars. The EU Directives for the protection of aquatic environments: the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Quality Elements and the assessment of the Ecological Status. Macrodescriptors and the assessment of the Environmental Status. The implementation of WFD and MSFD in Italy.
2) Environmental data: the Copernicus portal and its services.
3) Environmental monitoring: main methodologies for data collection in water bodies. Application of statistical tools to the analysis of the data spatio-temporal variability.
4) Indicators and indeces for the assessment of the environmental status. Biodiversity indeces.
5) System thinking approach to the investigation of environmental dynamics. Basic elements of dynamic system theory. Numerical methods for computing trajectories and orbits of dynamic systems. Development of scripts for simulating the evolution of a pollutant concentration in a water body using "R". Input-output relationship and its relevance for the implementation of the environmental legislation. Linear combination of forcings: superposition principle. Streeter-Phelps model for simulating Dissolved Oxygen dynamics in a water body. NPZD biogeochemical models for simulating the pelagic primary production.
6) Food web models and coupling with organic micropollutant models: their use for the assessment of the ecological and chemical quality elements
7) Agent Based Models: their use in the assessment of ingression and dispersion of invasive Non-Indigenous Species.

Course notes and reading materials provided by the lecturer.

The achievement of the learning objectives is verified by means of a written test and of a report. The written test includes 6 questions, aimed at ascertaining that a student has understood the main theoretical background and is able to apply it to simple cases. The report will present the results of the application of the statistical and modelling tools to a case study, identified with the instructor. The case study will be developed by a team made up of at most three students, The maximum mark for the test is 12 points. The maximum mark for report is 18 points: the same mark is assigned to all the components of a gven team. The mark is the sum of the points obtained in the written test and report.

written and oral

The instructor is responsible for ensuring the authenticity and originality of all examinations and coursework. In cases of suspected academic misconduct, an additional on-site assessment may be required during the exams, which may differ from the standard format.

A. grades ranging from 18 to 22 will be awarded based on:
- sufficient knowledge of the course topics;
- limited capacity to apply the theoretical knowledge to problem solving.
B. grades ranging from 23 to 26 will be awarded based on:
- fair knowledge of the course topics;
- fair capacity to apply the the theoretical knowledge to problem solving;
C. :grades ranging from 27 to 30 will be awarded based on:
- good/very good knowledge of the course topics;
- good/very good capacity to apply the the theoretical knowledge to problem solving;
D. Honours will be awarded based on excellent knowledge of the course topics and problem solving capacity

1) Lectures, based on the notes which are provided weekly to the students, in which power point presentations will also be used. The relevance of all topics in understanding and modelling environmental processes is underlined and illustrated by means of examples. Simple numerical problems, similar to those proposed in the final test, are solved and discussed during classes.
2) Correction of homework.
3) Use of software tools for the numerical solution of dynamic systems and the application of statistical methodologies and other modelling tools: these tools allow students to simulate the evolution of ecological systems in real case studies, in which the forcing functions are given by spatio-temporal series of field data.

This subject deals with topics related to the macro-area "Natural capital and environmental quality" and contributes to the achievement of one or more goals of U. N. Agenda for Sustainable Development