Agenda

23 Ago 2019 14:30

Cholera spreading and migration fluxes

Sala conferenze Orio-Zanetto, Campus Scientifico Via Torino

Abstract:

Cholera remains a critical health problem in Africa with recurrent outbreaks. Although Niger has a relatively low annual prevalence with respect to neighbor countries, it periodically witnesses cholera outbreaks which are heuristically thought to be related to immigration fluxes across the country borders. The research carried out during this project aimed at identifying the most relevant transmission mechanisms of cholera (e.g. local factors, human mobility, migration) in Niger and the surrounding area by analyzing a detailed, spatially-explicit epidemiological dataset of cholera prevalence in Niger for the period 1994-2016. The research has been realized in collaboration with UNICEF Niger, Niger Ministry of Health, CERMES (Centre de Recherche Medicale et Sanitaire), and with the external contribution of the Institute of Pasteur Dakar, formerly involved in a similar study in Senegal. The objectives are: 1) to retrieve and analyze data on population density from global datasets (e.g . landscan, worldpop) for Niger; 2) to retrieve and analyze precipitation data from global dataset for the same area; 3) to estimate mobility fluxes among different departments and across national borders through the implementation of mobility models (e.g. gravity or radiation models). 3) to implement the epidemiological model for cholera transmission forced by the aforementioned data. The results of the calibrated mathematical model shed light on the major mechanisms controlling cholera transmission, differentiating in particular between local transmission and importation of cases due to human mobility and immigration from Niger and bordering countries.

Bio Sketch

Giacomo Marchi graduated in Environmental Sciences at University of Venice Ca’ Foscari and then received a Ph.D. in Environmental Science from Aberdeen University. The topic presented in this seminar was investigated while being a Post-Doc researcher at the Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University of Venice Ca’ Foscari.

Lingua

L'evento si terrà in italiano

Organizzatore

Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica - Enrico Bertuzzo

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