Extreme spatio-temporal events in a changing climate; an analysis of extreme temperatures in Ireland
Aula Delta 2C, Edificio DELTA - Campus Scientifico via Torino and Zoom
The talk will also be available via Zoom https://unive.zoom.us/j/85153268624 Meeting ID: 851 5326 8624 Passcode: SanMarco2
Speaker: Dáire Healy, Maynooth University
Characterisation of extreme temperature events is crucial for societal development. We are thus motivated to investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily maximum temperature data. We model the tails of the marginal variables using the generalised Pareto distribution and the spatial dependence of extreme events using an r-Pareto process, with parameters of each model allowed to change over time. We use weather station observations for modelling extreme events since data from climate models have trends determined by the specific climate model configuration. However, climate models do provide valuable information about the detailed physiography over Ireland and the associated climate response. We propose novel methods which exploit the climate model data to overcome issues linked to the sparse and biased sampling of the observations. In this talk we will give details of our data, modelling procedure and illustrate how our analysis identifies a temporal change in the behaviour of extreme temperature events over Ireland.
Dáire Healy's research focuses on extreme value statistics and spatial statistics.
The event will be held in English
Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Prof.ssa Ilaria Prosdocimi (Statistica)