12 Dec 2023 10:30

Extreme spatio-temporal events in a changing climate; an analysis of extreme temperatures in Ireland

Aula Delta 2C, Edificio DELTA - Campus Scientifico via Torino and Zoom

The talk will also be available via Zoom Meeting ID: 851 5326 8624 Passcode: SanMarco2

SpeakerDáire Healy, Maynooth University

Characterisation of extreme temperature events is crucial for societal development. We are thus motivated to investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily maximum temperature data. We model the tails of the marginal variables using the generalised Pareto distribution and the spatial dependence of extreme events using an r-Pareto process, with parameters of each model allowed to change over time. We use weather station observations for modelling extreme events since data from climate models have trends determined by the specific climate model configuration. However, climate models do provide valuable information about the detailed physiography over Ireland and the associated climate response. We propose novel methods which exploit the climate model data to overcome issues linked to the sparse and biased sampling of the observations. In this talk we will give details of our data, modelling procedure and illustrate how our analysis identifies a temporal change in the behaviour of extreme temperature events over Ireland.

Bio Sketch:
Dáire Healy's research focuses on extreme value statistics and spatial statistics.



The event will be held in English

Organized by

Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Prof.ssa Ilaria Prosdocimi (Statistica)

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